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Sports by the Numbers

Technical Appendix: Value of Selected Football Events

Posted on December 27, 2014December 27, 2014 by Peter Lemieux

Point Value of Selected Football Events

Dependent variable: Average Margin of Victory, 2014

spread-model-results

This table presents the results of a series of regressions using the average margin of victory as the dependent variable, and the per-game differences in yards, turnover, and sacks as the predictors.  I found no statistical difference between yards gained rushing versus passing.  The effect of a fumble may be greater than the effect of an interception, but we would need more data to determine any differences.  Thus the final model includes only the net yardage advantage and treats all turnovers identically.

Posted in Technical Notes

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